The European Neutrals and NATO by Andrew Cottey

Author:Andrew Cottey
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan UK, London

Although there is no visible quantitative trend in support of NATO membership, there may have been a qualitative change more recently. Those in favour of NATO membership are more convinced than ever that they are right. For many of those who supported NATO membership in the past, the Russian threat was not the key issue, but rather Finland’s willingness to belong to the relevant organisations that can better influence its security environment and allow it to participate in decision-making. Since the Ukraine crisis, NATO membership supporters have advocated their position more intensively and openly, pointing also to the Russia threat, while those defending the policy of military non-alignment have needed to defend their views more effectively than before.

As long as the majority of the public at large are against NATO membership, politicians will tend to stick to the existing policy line. Nevertheless, the relationship between public opinion and party positions is a chicken-and-egg question. There is some evidence to the effect that if the government supported NATO membership, public opinion would change. Less than one-third of the population supports membership, but only roughly one-third opposes it consistently. The opinion of the remaining one-third is volatile and might change were the leadership to argue for membership, but there is no certainty on the issue. Leading politicians and parties have circumvented the public opinion issue by stating that a referendum would be organised on the membership question (O’Dwyer 2014).

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