The Elephant in the Room by Andrew E. Busch

Author:Andrew E. Busch
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers
Published: 2022-07-20T00:00:00+00:00

Trump’s Post-Presidential Image

As this article is being finished, in late November 2021, Trump’s standing in American public opinion remains about what it was during his presidency. A great deal has recently been written about President Biden’s sharp decline in the polls. But even after this falloff, Biden remains slightly more popular than Trump. According to the running averages on realclearpolitics.com, Trump was viewed favorably by just 41 percent of the public, Biden by 42 percent. (Since these figures are averages based on the results of numerous polls, the result is statistically significant.) Similarly, Biden’s approval rating, which was 56 percent when he entered office, is now just 41 percent. But Trump’s rating, at the same point in his presidency, was 39 percent.

When such results are broken down by party, Trump continues, not surprisingly, to be a highly polarizing figure. In a mid-November Morning Consult/Politico poll, 83 percent of Republicans held a favorable opinion of Trump versus 12 percent of Democrats. In terms of its impact on future elections, however, the most significant finding was that only 38 percent of independents said they had a favorable opinion of Trump, while 58 percent held an unfavorable opinion.41 These numbers don’t preclude a Trump victory in 2024—perhaps Biden (or some other Democratic presidential nominee) will be even more unpopular—but they do make a Republican victory considerably more difficult than it would be with a less abrasive standard-bearer.

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