The Demography of South Africa by Zuberi Tukufu;Sibanda Amson;Udjo Eric O.; & Amson Sibanda & Eric Udjo

Author:Zuberi, Tukufu;Sibanda, Amson;Udjo, Eric O.; & Amson Sibanda & Eric Udjo [Tukufu Zuberi]
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 4605333
Publisher: Taylor & Francis Group

Figure 5.1a Comparison of Male Deaths from the Population Register with Those from Stats SA, South Africa, 1996 Source: Statistics South Africa database

Figure 5.1b Comparison of Female Deaths from the Population Register with Those from Stats SA, South Africa, 1996 Source: Statistics South Africa database.

use of HIV/AIDS-related deaths figures allows for the misreporting of deaths due to HIV/AIDS and acts to provide a safe upper limit for such deaths. The figures may overestimate deaths due to HIV/AIDS in the higher ages (above 50) but remain closer to the true level for deaths in the adult ages 15 to 49.

The tables show estimated deaths among males that were due to HIV/AIDS and all possible HIV/AIDS-related causes, based on the CDC list, increasing from 5,553 in 1996 to 20,007 in 2000, and among females from 6,159 in 1996 to 28,552 in 2000. When the Stats SA list is used, the figures show an increase for males from 12,231 in 1996 to 44,067 in 2000. For females, the corresponding estimated increase was from 9,197 in 1996 to 42,636 in 2000. For the broad age range 15 to 49 considered, the highest numbers of estimated HIV/AIDS deaths occured in the age group 30 to 44 among males and 25-39 among females.

Age-specific death rates and percentages of deaths were then computed for three sets of data, PR1, PR2, and PR3. These results are shown in Tables 5.4a to 5.5b and illustrated in Figures 5.2a to 5.5c.

When the PR data are analyzed as reported, the log of the age-specific death rates in Figure 5.2a exhibits two features. The log rates show a rapid rate of increase in mortality from ages 15 to 19 to ages 20 to 24. This rapid increase is present in all the data years. From ages 25 to 29 to ages 40 to 44, the mortality levels increase with time, but the rate of increase is not drastic. With the adjustment of the PR data, the first feature (regarding age groups 15 t019 and 20 to 24) becomes less pronounced, while the second feature remains. As all the deaths due to HIV/AIDS and all possible HIV/AIDS-related causes are removed, Figure 5.2c shows that the curves are largely flattened. However, a small bulge remains that can be translated to indicate some increase in mortality in the ages over 30, from 1997 to 2000.

Table 5.2

Adjustments of the Population Register Data to Bring Them in Line with the Data from Stats SA, 1997-2000

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