The Cold Start Problem by Andrew Chen

Author:Andrew Chen
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Harper Business
Published: 2021-10-08T00:00:00+00:00

19

The Engagement Effect

Scurvy

The modern techniques we use in studying the stickiness and engagement of technology products have their origins in the study of disease.

In 1753, Scottish doctor James Lind published a celebrated paper called “Treatise of Scurvy,” one of the first reported clinical trials in history. In it, he described his studies and experiments on scurvy while he served as ship surgeon on the HMS Salisbury, a Royal Navy warship. At the time, scurvy was one of the most devastating diseases for sailors in the navy. It is said that more sailors would die of scurvy than of contact with the enemy, and it had become a major barrier in conducting warfare and trade over long distances.

In his paper, Lind described one of the first randomized controlled trials in history. He divided twelve men suffering from scurvy symptoms into six pairs, and gave the following mixture on a daily basis: cider, diluted sulfuric acid, sea water, and vinegar. One lucky pair, the experiment group, also got two oranges and a lemon. Then Lind would check on how the sailors were doing over time. The improvement in the two receiving vitamin C from the citrus was obvious, and by the end of the trial, when they had run out of fruit, this pair were almost fully recovered.

These techniques were so powerful that hundreds of years later, they are the basis for how tech companies measure and optimize for engagement and retention for their products.

In the modern usage, users are often divided into separate groups—called cohorts—which then allow them to be measured separately. Instead of tracking for scurvy, instead users are monitored on how active they are within a product—how many are still around a day after they sign up, versus seven days or thirty days? Are newer users having a better experience over the first few weeks, compared to an older cohort that was using a buggier version of the product?

These graphs—often called “cohort retention curves”—are the foundational method for understanding whether a product is working or not. And we have James Lind and his study of scurvy to thank for the technique.

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