The Caribbean Basin to the Year 2000: Demographic, Economic, and Resource Use Trends in Seventeen Countries: A Compendium of Statistics and Projections by Norman A. Graham & Keith L. Edwards

Author:Norman A. Graham & Keith L. Edwards [Graham, Norman A. & Edwards, Keith L.]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: Political Science, General
ISBN: 9781000279122
Google: KfutDwAAQBAJ
Goodreads: 52931273
Publisher: Routledge
Published: 1984-08-01T00:00:00+00:00

Mineral Commodities

Gold, silver, lead, and zinc are currently mined in Nicaragua and, in addition, exploitable reserves of gypsum and natural gas have been discovered. The four largest gold mines were nationalized after the revolution--the mines were owned by one Canadian and two American companies; negotiations are still ongoing to determine the level of compensation for the original owners.

Forecasts

Our demographic projections suggest that the Nicaraguan population wili increase from 2.7 million in 1980 to 3.8 million in 1990 and 5.2 million in the year 2000 (see Table 3.30), increases of 39 percent from 1980 to 1990 and 36 percent from 1990 to 2000. The number of people in the nonproductive category will fall from 50 percent in 1980 to 06 percent in the year 2000. The urban population will increase from 53.3 percent of the population in 1980 to 59.7 percent in 1990 and 65.9 percent in the year 2000.

Economic projections are very risky at this point, but if World Bank growth assumptions prove reasonable, Nicaraguan GNP could surpass the $3 billion mark for the first time by 1990 and then exceed $5 billion by the year 2000 (see Table 3.31). The projected 1990 GNP would represent an increase of 60 percent over 1980 GNP, while GNP in the year 2000 would be 69 percent larger than its 1990 counterpart. The annual growth rates assumed for this forecast were 4.8 percent from 1980 to 1995 and 5.4 percent thereafter. This, when compared with the Nicaraguan experience of 7.2 percent in the decade of the 1960s and 5.8 percent from 1970 to 1977, assumes that post-1985 Nicaragua will have recovered from the effects of the war, and the major economic sectors will be contributing as before. Nicaraguan per capita income will then increase by 38 percent over the life of the forecast period--from $649 in 1980 to $898 in the year 2000--while, within the same period, the labor force will increase by 104 percent--from 874,600 in 1980 to 1.8 million in the year 2000. Admittedly, these projections may not be totally realistic in light of recent events. They must be taken as a fairly optimistic outlook on Nicaragua's prospects. The economy could obviously perform much more poorly if the instability and conflict continue.

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