Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis by Richards J. Heuer Jr. & Randolph H. Pherson

Author:Richards J. Heuer Jr. & Randolph H. Pherson [Heuer Jr., Richards J.]
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 9781483323022
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Published: 2014-05-13T00:00:00+00:00

Value Added

The value of Diagnostic Reasoning is that it helps analysts balance their natural tendency to interpret new information as consistent with their existing understanding of what is happening—that is, the analyst’s mental model. The technique prompts analysts to ask themselves whether this same information is consistent with other reasonable conclusions or alternative hypotheses. It is a common experience to discover that much of the information supporting what one believes is the most likely conclusion is really of limited value in confirming one’s existing view, because that same information is also consistent with alternative conclusions. One needs to evaluate new information in the context of all possible explanations of that information, not just in the context of a well-established mental model.

The Diagnostic Reasoning technique helps the analyst identify and focus on the information that is most needed to make a decision and avoid the mistake of discarding or ignoring information that is inconsistent with what the analyst expects to see. When evaluating evidence, analysts tend to assimilate new information into what they currently perceive. Gradual change is difficult to notice. Sometimes, past experience can provide a handicap in that the expert has much to unlearn—and a fresh perspective can be helpful.

Diagnostic Reasoning also helps analysts avoid the classic intuitive traps of assuming the same dynamic is in play when something seems to accord with an analyst’s past experiences and continuing to hold to an analytic judgment when confronted with a mounting list of evidence that contradicts the initial conclusion. It also helps reduce attention to information that is not diagnostic by identifying information that is consistent with all possible alternatives.

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