South Sudan's Civil War: Violence, Insurgency and Failed Peacemaking by John Young

Author:John Young
Language: eng
Format: mobi, pdf
ISBN: 9781786993786
Publisher: Zed Books
Published: 2019-01-14T21:00:00+00:00

The EPRDF views Ethiopia as the regional hegemon and was angered at the involvement of the Ugandan army in the South Sudan conflict. Contrary to assumptions in Kampala and claims by the Eritrean government, which is itself sometimes accused of supporting the IO, there is no evidence of EPRDF support for the SPLM-IO. And while the IO has carried out political activities in Gambella, so has the South Sudan government and later Taban Deng, who has also accused the IO of providing weapons to the Ethiopian Nuer in their frequent conflicts with the Anuak. There is no evidence, however, to substantiate the allegation, and the IO would have to be very stupid to threaten its relationship with the EPRDF by interfering in domestic politics.

Beyond the IGAD region, but a crucial participant in the politics of north-east Africa, is Egypt, which began by assuming a neutral position in the South Sudan conflict and was courted by both sides. But Egypt’s national interests primarily relate to the Nile River. It wants to restart the discredited Jonglei canal diversion which would destroy the Sudd and undermine the economies of the pastoralist Dinka and Nuer, in order to bring more water to Egypt. More immediately, it is involved in a dispute with Ethiopia over construction of the Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile, which it contends would reduce the flow of waters into the main branch of the river. When proposals were made for the establishment of a Regional Protection Force (see next chapter), with the support of Juba, Egypt pressed for involvement. This was strongly opposed by Addis Ababa, whose nightmare is to have Egyptian troops on the upper reaches of the Nile. There is growing evidence, however, that the failure of Egypt to stop construction of the Renaissance Dam and Uganda’s inability to defeat South Sudanese rebels has provided a basis for collaboration in which Uganda supports Egypt’s efforts to undermine Ethiopia’s project in return for Egypt supplying weapons to the Juba government through Uganda,2 a view supported by President Omar Bashir, whose country is in an increasingly tense relationship with Egypt.3 In these circumstances there is the potential for a conflict involving Egypt, Ethiopia, Uganda, South Sudan, and Sudan.4

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