Socionomic Causality in Politics by Robert R. Prechter

Author:Robert R. Prechter
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: The Elliott Wave Theorist;Elliott Wave Principle;Prechter;stock market;culture;politics
Published: 2018-07-13T17:23:35+00:00

3. Extreme Events Presage Imminent Reversals

Non-socionomists miss reversals because they don’t recognize the influence of social mood, which creates the very emotions and events upon which they are basing their judgments. The conventional forecaster’s approach is, “As today is, so shall tomorrow be, only a little more or a little less.” In contrast, socionomists work from the position that “extremes in social psychology prepare the socionomist for coming changes.”21 When social mood is extreme, it “implies nearness of a trend change in the opposite direction.”22

Socionomists do not advocate simple contrarianism. Often, a trend will remain in effect for some time. Probabilistically predictable Elliott wave patterns and their associated mood-event extremes are keys to predicting dramatic reversals in social trends.

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