Population Development Challenges in China by Pengkun Wu

Author:Pengkun Wu
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 9789811580109
Publisher: Springer Singapore

5.2 System Dynamics Model for Population Simulation

5.2.1 Song Jian’s Population Development Equation

In 1980, the famous demographer Song Jian proposed the following population development equation in his paper titled “Prediction on the process of population development” (Song et al. 1980).

(5.1)

where m denotes the maximum age in the system, and denote the beginning and ending age of having babies, respectively, denotes the total fertility rate in year t, denotes the total number of newborn babies in year t, denotes the infant mortality in year t, denotes the average death rate of age in year t, denotes the population number of age in year t, denotes the population migration of age in year t, denotes the proportion of women of age in year t, and denotes the fertility factor of age in year t, which should satisfy the normalization condition .

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