On the Cusp by Pearson Charles S.;

Author:Pearson, Charles S.; [Charles S. Pearson]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Oxford University Press, Incorporated
Published: 2015-05-20T14:16:00+00:00

1. See Bloom, Canning, and Sevilla 2003; Bongaarts 2009; Demeny 2011; Lee 2003; Reher 2011.

2. If infant and youth mortality rates fell further, the replacement rate would approach 2.0 as a limit. In high-mortality countries, the replacement rate may exceed 3.0.

3. The second wave of the DT should not be confused with what is sometimes called the second demographic transition. The latter refers to changing twentieth-century cultural characteristics such as cohabitation, births out of wedlock, and non-marriage, all increasingly prevalent in the West, but less so in Asian societies. See pp. 125 below.

4. Data from UN (2012).

5. Excluding China does not significantly alter this pattern.

6. Bongaarts (2010); Bongaarts and Casterline (2012); Shapiro (2012); Westoff (2012); Wusu 2012.

7. Assuming no change in mortality and no net migration. An (unlikely) immediate return to replacement fertility would moderate, but not eliminate, the population decline.

8. As an example mean age of giving birth in the Czech Republic rose from below 25 in 1992 to over 28 in 2002.

9. One study in Europe found that when stripped of the tempo effect, the adjusted TFR rose from 1.5 to 1.8. See Goldstein, Sobotka, and Jasilioniene 2009.

10. Sobotka, Skirbekk, and Philipov (2011) investigate the effects of cyclical economic decline on fertility.

11. Bongaarts and Sobotka (2012), using new data and new indicators of tempo and parity adjusted total fertility rates, support this interpretation.

12. For a good, nontechnical account, see Lutz and KC (2010).

13. For a current survey, see the 2012 issue of the Vienna Yearbook of Population Research.

14. Galor (2005) states that the ratio of GDP per capita in the world’s richest and poorest regions rose from 2.1:1 in 1500 to 3.1:1 in 1800 to 18:1 in 2001.

15. See also models by Becker, Murphy, and Tamura 1990; Ehrlich and Kim 2005.

16. Not all analysts are willing to dismiss luck. Becker, Murphy, and Tamura (1990) build a model with multiple stable equilibria including Malthusian stagnation, but then draw attention to the role of accidents and good fortune in determining in which state a country winds up.

17. Interestingly, Galor and Moav (2002) invoke Charles Darwin’s evolutionary theory to explain escape from a Malthusian trap; whereas, Darwin used Malthus’s theory to help explain evolution. Galor and Moav argue that the lineages of those individuals with characteristics favorable to technological progress had an evolutionary advantage, and their growing number triggered a positive feedback to technology growth.

18. Angles (2010) investigates the mortality-fertility link.

19. In technical terms the income elasticity of demand for additional children was trumped by the substitution effect arising from increased opportunity cost of additional children. Birdsall (1988) provides a straightforward explanation of the household demand model of fertility. In Razin and Sadka’s (1995) model, an increase in family income can lead to increased spending on quality (e.g., education) but lower numbers of children if the elasticity of substitution between quality and quantity of children is low.

20. The quantity/quality terminology goes back at least to Becker’s fundamental work in the 1960s on the microeconomics of family fertility decision-making. Nevertheless, there is

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