Offensive Cyber Operations by Daniel Moore;

Author:Daniel Moore; [Moore;, Daniel]
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 9781787385610
Publisher: LightningSource
Published: 2022-05-05T00:00:00+00:00

Overpowering Taiwan

Taiwan as an adversary presents numerous challenges and opportunities for OCOs. On one hand, historically limited access to military equipment acquisition and a reliance on ageing platforms means that the networked attack surface is significant. Persistent use of the same technologies, networks, and systems leaves neighbouring China with plenty of opportunities to both develop presence-based operations and conduct research and development on event capabilities. Conversely, that same reality means that Taiwan’s military has physical redundancies and are likely more capable of conducting combat operations even bereft of networked command and control.

Against the Taiwanese military, the stated PLA doctrine could seek to severely degrade anti-air assets, cripple command and control capabilities, disable defensive assets such as aircraft, ships and missile sites, and decapitate the military and civilian hierarchy. The opening salvo is designed to facilitate follow-up operations and erode the Taiwanese military’s capability to resist the more casualty-prone phases. A successful opening salvo has the potential to significantly shorten the duration of conflict and reduce PLA losses; both elements are defined as highly desirable by PLA leadership. To achieve this, the PLA is investing heavily in methods and capabilities that would increase the potency of the early stages of conflict, including ballistic missiles, amphibious landing hardware, air power, and cyber operations.

Some presence-based operations could yield returns before the shooting starts. Due to the limited size of its defence-industrial complex, Taiwan presents a fairly small supply chain attack surface. Many of the national security research and development programs are spearheaded by the National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology (NCSIST). Considering China’s proclivity for targeting adversary defence contractors,56 it probably attempted to similarly target the NCSIST. Successful compromise could result in intimate access to Taiwan’s homegrown technology, with the added potential benefit of introducing vulnerabilities that could be exploited in conflict time, even against air-gapped networks. The notion of bundling malicious software with equipment is not new to China; it has been previously implicated in a variety of supply chain compromises that either include its own hardware or tampering with existing components.57 Thus, the operational expertise theoretically exists, yet it remains unclear whether China could wield it to impact Taiwanese defence networks.

A kinetic approach would rely on a mixture of shock operations and massive mobilisation. Extensive literature has been written on the PLA’s capacity to effectively render airbases out of commission.58 Strike vectors would include a high volume of short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs), land-attack cruise missiles (LACMs) and air-launched cruise missiles to overwhelm defences and penetrate hardened aircraft shelters, while simultaneously blanketing runways with specialised munitions designed to disable take-off capabilities. This brute-force approach stands to be highly effective against exposed targets, but Taiwan’s armed forces have expected it for decades, and have appropriately developed countermeasures of varying usefulness. These include several highly resistant sprawling military command centres built into various mountainsides. The mountainous topography of Taiwan allows for effective diffusion of command and control, which then cannot be easily knocked out by ballistic missiles or air attacks. Assessments suggest over

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