Information and Elections by Alvarez R. Michael;

Author:Alvarez, R. Michael;
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: University of Michigan Press

Fig. 7.3. Effects of uncertainty, 1980.

But the magnitude of the effects varies between the three candidates in an interesting way. For Reagan, there is about a .70 shift in probability of Reagan support over the entire range of the graph; that is, if this voter was very certain of Reagan’s positions on the issues she would be very likely to vote for Reagan (with probability of almost .80), but if this voter was very uncertain of Reagan’s positions, she would be quite unlikely to vote for Reagan (probability of around .10). The change in probability of Carter support is also quite large across this range of Carter uncertainty, at approximately a .60 point change. But the change in probability of Anderson support is less, at around .40 points. Thus, issue uncertainty had the least effect on Anderson support, but the most effect on Reagan support.

What about the effect of issue distances in 1980? Earlier I argued that there were competing expectations for the role of issues in the 1980 election; however, the multinomial probit results indicated that issues did matter to voters in this election. To see how much they mattered, I again use graphical methods to examine the influence of candidate issue distance on candidate support for an average voter. These results are shown in figure 7.4

Download

Copyright Disclaimer:
This site does not store any files on its server. We only index and link to content provided by other sites. Please contact the content providers to delete copyright contents if any and email us, we'll remove relevant links or contents immediately.