Future Scenarios by David Holmgren

Author:David Holmgren
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Chelsea Green Publishing
Published: 2011-01-29T16:00:00+00:00

Brown Tech: Top-Down Constriction

Slow energy-decline rates, severe climate-change symptoms

The brown-tech world is one in which the production of oil declines after its peak between 2005 and 2010 at about 2 percent per annum and the subsequent peak and decline of natural gas is also relatively gentle, but the severity of global warming symptoms is at the extreme end of current mainstream scientific predictions. In this scenario strong, even aggressive, national policies and actions prevail to address both the threats and the opportunities from energy peak and climatic change. The political system could be characterized as corporatist or fascist (which Mussolini described as a merger of state and corporate power).

The tendency in existing systems for massive centralized investment by corporations and governments gives priority to getting more energy out of lower-grade nonrenewable resources (e.g., tar sands, coal, and uranium) and biofuels from industrial agriculture and forestry. “Breakthrough” technologies provide the constant promise of a better future, but much of the investment in energy harvesting accelerates global warming, at least in the short term.

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