Facing China by Jean-Pierre Cabestan;

Author:Jean-Pierre Cabestan;
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield Publishing Group, Inc.
Published: 2023-05-15T00:00:00+00:00

Conclusion: The Impact of the Ukraine War and Its Limits

Taiwan is clearly in a more perilous state than twenty years ago. The risks, if not of total war, of armed incidents or even limited confrontations in the strait are growing and will force the three parties involved—Beijing, Taipei, and Washington—to better prepare to manage difficult, even insoluble, crises.

These incidents and crises could have worrying economic and social consequences for Taiwan. They may be perceived in Beijing as effective means to frighten the Taiwanese and make them feel more acutely the growing asymmetry of forces and the inevitability of opening political talks with the mainland and finally accept a form of unification. But will they be enough to make the island’s authorities bend? In the foreseeable future, any new crisis would have the immediate result of tightening the already close Taipei–Washington ties and perhaps also convincing Tokyo and even Canberra to shed its reserve.

Ahead of any crisis, Taiwan has been striving to adapt to any new China-imposed military-strategic scenario. It has been investing more in armed forces to improve conventional deterrence capability, protecting itself more effectively against cyberattacks and disinformation. And democracy protects it from the strongest pulls of the CCP’s united front strategy.

But its double dependence on China and the United States requires caution, regardless of the party in power in Taipei. As for Beijing, Taipei must avoid any move toward formal independence; while trying hard to reduce its dependence upon the mainland, it must bear in mind its economic interests there. Simultaneously, it must remain in tune with the US administration, regardless of whichever party is in office, to be assured of support in all circumstances. The strategic importance of Taiwan’s electronics industry, especially the TSMC company, for US industry strengthens Taipei’s hand in this equation but it is far from being an absolute guarantee against a future war, especially as the United States is working actively at developing its own semi-conductor industry and moving TSMC and others to its soil.

The real question for any “Green” government is whether its position is tenable in the long term or whether the CCP will succeed, through threats, in forcing the DPP to subscribe to the “92 consensus,” or One China. Growing PLA pressures may have no other purpose, even if this concession is made only to renew intimidations in order to force Taipei to continue giving ground and accept the unification idea.

Taiwan’s geographical position paradoxically places it not only at the forefront, but also at the heart of the new Sino–US cold war. It is simultaneously a source of protection but also of danger.

Each of the three parties is aware of the famous Thucydides Trap risks. And the war in Ukraine has clearly made them more aware of the danger of trespassing the threshold of an armed conflict. China may be tempted to conduct more aggressive gray zone tactics and coercion. But it has been taken aback by all the negative and unintended consequences of the Russian invasion and is now trying actively to address them both from a military and economic standpoint.

Download

Copyright Disclaimer:
This site does not store any files on its server. We only index and link to content provided by other sites. Please contact the content providers to delete copyright contents if any and email us, we'll remove relevant links or contents immediately.