Expert Judgment in Project Management: Narrowing the Theory-Practice Gap by Paul S. Szwed;

Author:Paul S. Szwed;
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Project Management Institute

2.5 Findings and Implications

This review of the literature has uncovered several significant findings regarding how the state of the art/science can inform the practice of expert judgment in project management:

There are a great many elicitation protocols. The generic seven-step protocol is a compilation of some of the most prominent and adheres to the five phases of project management.

Expert judgment in project management conforms to two basic forms: generative and evaluative.

Generative information may best be obtained from fluent (or literate) experts. Evaluative information may best be obtained from numerate experts.

Expert selection is important and expertise should be matched to the information needed.

There are some expert judgment elicitation methods that are better suited for generative tasks. Other expert judgment elicitation methods are better suited for evaluative tasks.

Expert judgment can be improved through pre-elicitation training, debiasing, and feedback.

Expert judgments can be aggregated using mathematical (e.g., arithmetic average) or behavioral (e.g., consensus) means. Often, the best way to combine evaluative judgment (e.g., interval estimates) is by simple averaging.

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