Emergent Knowledge Strategies by Ettore Bolisani & Constantin Bratianu

Author:Ettore Bolisani & Constantin Bratianu
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Springer International Publishing, Cham

Considering potential events or tipping points and ‘wild cards’.

Developing possible futures.

Choosing among the different futures available the most preferred future.”

Looking from the present moment to the infinity of the timeline we can distinguish four domains of the future: (a) preferable future; (b) probable futures; (c) possible futures; and (d) plausible futures (Murgatroyd 2015, p. 73). The key to the new paradigm is to identify early signals and significant trends of change and to imagine toward what domain of the future will target those trends. Then, to come back to the present time and develop scenarios in concordance with those trends and anticipated changes. That means that in a turbulent business environment it is not vital to predict what will happen, but to explore the different things which could happen. “Taking into account various possible futures based on one or more models enables an organization to decrease the reaction time needed when a new development actually occurs. This changed scenario thinking from a method to predict the future into a method to explore possible alternative futures and to think through what the organization could do in these possible situations” (De Ruijter and Alkema 2014, p. 57). We may consider that scenario thinking doesn't aim at making better predictions about the future, but at helping organizations to be better prepared for the coming future.

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