Credit Code Red by Peter Brain

Author:Peter Brain
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: BUS069030, BUS023000, BUS027000, BUS086000, BUS039000, BUS022000
Publisher: Scribe Publications
Published: 2017-07-17T04:00:00+00:00

We have incorporated these indicators into an index of the risk of an Australian economic crisis using weights estimated from data for all relevant countries over the period from 1970 to 2011. The higher the indicator value, the greater the level of risk. As shown in Figure 3, the average risk-indicator value for the period was 0.52, with the years of highest risk being 1986 at 0.74 and 2000 to 2001 at around 0.72. In 2011, the risk of crisis abated to a low level. However, after 2013, with the winding down of the mining boom, the fall in commodity prices, and a downward adjustment in the exchange rate, the risk indicator increased rapidly and is now back to its average value for the period since 1970.

Figure 3: Australian systemic crisis risk indicator from 1970 to 2015

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