Cognition and Chance by Nickerson Raymond S

Author:Nickerson, Raymond S.
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: ebook
Publisher: Taylor & Francis Ltd
Published: 2011-09-26T16:00:00+00:00

p(D|P)=p(D&P)/p(P)=.00009/.01=.009,

TABLE 7.3 Results Expected With a Diagnostic Test That Correctly Detects 90% of the Cases of Disease and Erroneously Shows Positive on 1 % of the Cases of No Disease

TABLE 7.4 Results Expected With a Diagnostic Test That Correctly Detects 90% of the Cases of Disease and Erroneously Shows Positive on .001% of the Cases of No Disease

In the first of these hypothetical examples, the probability that the disease is present, given a positive test result on a randomly selected person, is about 9 chances in 1,000, or approximately 1 in 100. In the second case, the probability that the disease is present, given a positive test result on a randomly selected person, is

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