Advanced AI and Data Science Applications by D. Sivabalaselvamani & G. Revathy & Ranjit Singh Sarban Singh

Author:D. Sivabalaselvamani & G. Revathy & Ranjit Singh Sarban Singh
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: CRC Press
Published: 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00

11.7 Trends and Seasonalities

In time series analysis, trends refer to long-term upward or downward movements in the data over a period. Trend will not repeat itself over time. For example, if a new song trends, the number of listeners listening to that song will be high. But it will not be repeating itself every year. Seasonalities in time series analysis are regular and predictable patterns that repeat at specific intervals, such as monthly or yearly cycles. These patterns reflect periodic fluctuations in the data. For example, every year, the months between March and May have the highest air conditioner sales due to heat waves. [4]Here, in our dataset, we have analyzed trends and seasonalities and visualized them.

In Figure 11.8, our trends and seasonality give the same picture as Figure 11.6. We can see that from October to January, the sales increase yearly and drop afterward. It is a seasonality because similar buying behavior exists across years, for which the 158. reason has been stated in Figure 11.9. We can also examine the trend of one particular chemical or buying pattern of one particular company. This will be very useful in deciding priorities. We could prioritize those chemicals and companies over others as they are most expected to give us profit in that specific period.

Figure 11.8 Overall trend of chemical purchases. Return to text.⏎ Figure 11.9 Specific trend of Glauber’s salt. Return to text.⏎ Here, the chemical-specific trends and seasonality visualization is given in Figure 11.9.

Figure 11.9 shows the overall purchase trend of only one chemical called “Glauber’s salt.” We can see the overall seasonalities are also reflected here, that is, we are having high sales in the latter part of the year. But one unusual trend that is not seasonal here is the sudden peak in July month of 2022 and May–June months of 2023. As they do not repeat themselves every year, they are mere trends. There must have 159. been a sudden demand for Glauber’s salt for a company, so they must have purchased it in large numbers. Figure 11.10 shows the trend of the chemical “Monosodium glutamate.” Similar to other chemicals, we could see a spike not only in year-end but also in May 2023 which is a trend too. We should also analyze the trend of chemicals purchased over time with respect to a company that purchases them from the factory. When we visualize that, we get what is shown in Figure 11.11.

Figure 11.10 Specific trend of monosodium glutamate. Return to text.⏎ Figure 11.11 Amount of “caustic flakes” purchased by the company11. Although the overall trends are peaking from October to January, this need not be the case for every chemical and every company. Return to text.⏎ Figure 11.12 Sera Zon C purchased by company34. Return to text.⏎ 160. In Figure 11.11, we can see the chemical purchased in November 2021, August 2022, July 2023, and September 2023. Another example we took is shown in Figure 11.12.

Now, when we analyze the chemical-specific trend of a single company, we are taking a couple of examples.

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