The Impossible State: North Korea, Past and Future by Victor Cha

Author:Victor Cha
Language: eng
Format: mobi, epub, pdf
ISBN: 9780061998508
Publisher: Ecco
Published: 2012-04-03T00:00:00+00:00

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This comment by the DPRK Six-Party negotiator on a U.S. draft of a verification protocol of the North’s nuclear declaration started the cycle back to crisis mode from late 2008. The Six-Party Talks almost faltered on North Korea’s refusal to provide a clear and comprehensive declaration of their nuclear holdings. Chris Hill averted a breakdown with a last-ditch effort in the autumn of 2008 to come up with a compromise solution on the declaration, including an unusual format where Pyongyang would have a written declaration for certain parts of the program and an unwritten understanding for other parts that would be sanctioned by the other members of the Six-Party Talks. There was much controversy over this unorthodox format; moreover, concerns about the uranium program mounted when U.S. forensics on the aluminum tubes and operating records brought back from Yongbyon showed traces of enriched uranium. Yet the declaration appeared to focus only on plutonium while vaguely acknowledging U.S. concerns about uranium. The leniency on the declaration was only accepted because all discrepancies would be addressed in the verification process. The North reportedly agreed verbally to allow a standard IAEA-based verification protocol that would allow international inspectors to do site visits and “scientific sampling” to verify any concerns the United States might have. North Korean authorities, however, were not willing to put these commitments in writing, and the White House would not accept Hill’s less-than-specific formulation. North Korea’s reluctance to accept a standard IAEA-based verification procedure for their nuclear declaration made obvious to many that Pyongyang may have been willing to give up its now-decrepit Yongbyon reactor to dismantlement, but that it was not willing to give up its weapons or other nuclear secrets. Many speculate that another key variable for the breakdown of negotiations was Kim Jong-il’s stroke in August 2008, after which negotiation responsiveness on the DPRK side precipitously declined. The December 2008 round of Six-Party Talks ended without agreement, and the stage was set for a deterioration of relations once again. There would not be another round of negotiations for well over three years.

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