The Empty Throne by Ivo H. Daalder

Author:Ivo H. Daalder
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: PublicAffairs
Published: 2018-10-15T16:00:00+00:00

IRAN’S NUCLEAR PROGRAM lagged far behind North Korea’s. Iran had no nuclear weapons when Trump assumed office. That would not change during his presidency if the 2015 Iran nuclear deal held. Formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), it was the result of years of negotiations between Iran and the so-called P5+1, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany. The complicated agreement required Iran to give up virtually all of its stockpile of low-enriched uranium (a critical element to building a bomb), accept significant restrictions on the nuclear activities it could conduct, allow intrusive international inspections to verify its compliance, and recommit to never developing or acquiring nuclear weapons. In exchange, Iran received relief from nuclear-related sanctions that the United States, the European Union, and the UN Security Council had imposed. In all, it was a deal that stretched the likely breakout time before Iran could build a nuclear weapon from two months to a year or more.

It was also an agreement that candidate Trump assailed as the “dumbest deal perhaps I’ve ever seen in the history of deal-making.”61 Some of Trump’s pique over the deal reflected his habit of attacking any agreement he hadn’t crafted as the “worst deal ever.” He repeatedly riffed on how he would have negotiated with the Iranians and why he would have gotten a far better deal. That hubris aside, many of Trump’s substantive criticisms, although frequently overstated and laced with misinformation, raised issues that concerned even the deal’s supporters. The restrictions on Iran’s nuclear activities weren’t permanent; some provisions would lapse in 2026, and others would be lifted in 2031. The inspection protocols, although highly intrusive and permanent, weren’t foolproof. Iran’s ballistic missile program, which was covered by separate UN Security Council resolutions and US sanctions, wasn’t part of the deal. Sanctions relief would energize the beleaguered Iranian economy as Iran resumed normal trade relations and regained access to overseas accounts that had been frozen. The regime could use this influx of funds, the size of which Trump regularly exaggerated, to finance its long-standing efforts to destabilize its neighbors and extend its influence in the region. And contrary to the hopes of many of the deal’s supporters, Tehran hadn’t responded to the deal by moderating its behavior. It had instead moved more aggressively to press its interests in the region.

Whether Obama could have negotiated a better deal was a question for debating societies by the time Trump took office. The choice he faced was what to do about the deal that existed. He had considerable freedom to decide how to act. Obama had not designated the JCPOA a treaty because he knew he could not win the necessary support of two-thirds of the Republican-controlled Senate. He instead treated it as an executive agreement, which the Constitution empowers presidents to approve on their own authority. But executive agreements signed with one president’s pen can be undone by another’s. As a candidate Trump initially said he would enforce

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