Just War by Charles Guthrie

Author:Charles Guthrie
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 9781408820445
Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing
Published: 2019-11-23T00:00:00+00:00

Reasonable Prospect of Success

The 'success' criterion reflects the truth that, whatever may be thought of an individual's entitlement to hazard or lose his or her life ('death before dishonour', or the like), it cannot be right for a national leader, responsible for the good of all the people, to undertake — or prolong-armed conflict, with all the loss of life and other harm that entails, if there is no reasonable likelihood that this would achieve a better outcome for the people than would result from rejecting or ending combat and simply doing whatever is possible by other means.

The criterion is occasionally thought to require that the decision-maker believe, after proper consideration, that there is a good chance of victory. This is rather too narrow. It is entirely possible to envisage circumstances in which something other than victory, at least in the classical military sense, can legitimately be rated as success. Preventing an aggressor from getting what he wants, even if his forces are not militarily defeated, can be so counted. There may even, though more rarely, be situations in which military defeat can qualify as adequate success if the fact of substantial resistance leads to an outcome less harmful than would have resulted from immediate capitulation. In 1939—40 Finland resisted attack by the Soviet Union, and though the resistance was eventually (and entirely predictably) overcome, it is likely that the settlement imposed thereafter did less harm to Finland than uncontested conquest would have done.

It is sometimes suggested that, even in hopeless causes, armed resistance can be legitimate as an upholding of national or moral values. This perhaps cannot be ruled out totally, but it would need to be assessed warily and indeed sceptically, since in practice it could too easily shade into defending the pride or obstinacy of the ruler rather than the interests of the people. And the criterion of proportionality — was the demonstrative upholding worth massive loss of life? — would still apply.

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