474069_1_En_Print.indd by 0002624

Author:0002624
Language: eng
Format: epub
Published: 2019-03-16T09:55:06+00:00

Chapter 4

Intellectual Analysis of Systemic World

Conflicts and Global Forecast

for the 21st Century

4.1

Introduction

Data on global conflicts took place from 750 B.C. up to now are analyzed and their general pattern is revealed. An attempt is made to foresee the next global conflict called the conflict of the 21st century. Its nature and main characteristics are analyzed. Main global threats are listed, and their impact on five groups of countries is determined using cluster analysis.

Based on the consideration of evolutionary development of the civilization as a holistic process determined by a harmonious interaction of its components, patterns of Kondratieff cycles of the development of the global economy and C-waves of global systemic conflicts are compared and an attempt is made to predict these processes in the 21st century using a metric approach.

The next part of the study is based on the Fibonacci pattern of global systemic conflicts (Ñ-waves) which allowed us to formulate the hypotheses about a metric relation between two global periodic processes, namely, between the sequence of 11-year cycles of solar activity and the process of evolutionary structurization of the family of Ñ-waves of global systemic conflicts covering large and super-large time intervals and having a variable structural configuration.

The structural analysis is performed for Cn-waves of global systemic conflicts based on their empirical sequence, and metric approaches are proposed to study and forecast these processes. Global systemic conflicts and great Kondratieff waves of the development of the world economy are proved to correspond to a number of additional conditions, namely, to the modern concept on the acceleration of historical time, to the law of structural harmony, and to global forecasts for the 21st century.

Bayesian Belief Networks are used to establish qualitative causal relations between global threats and indicators of sustainable development. The method of belief network synthesis and a method of generalization of final results are

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020

141

M. Z. Zgurovsky and Y. P. Zaychenko, Big Data: Conceptual

Analysis and Applications, Studies in Big Data 58,

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-14298-8_4

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