The post-crisis Irish voter: Voting behaviour in the Irish 2016 general election by David M. Farrell & Theresa Reidy Michael Marsh

Author:David M. Farrell & Theresa Reidy Michael Marsh [Michael Marsh, David M. Farrell and Theresa Reidy]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Manchester University Press
Published: 2018-09-30T23:00:00+00:00

Party versus candidate

The literature on the importance of candidate intermingles terms such as the personal vote, personalism and candidate-centred voting, but they are all generally discussing the same phenomenon – the ability of candidates to attract a following based on their personal qualities. One factor often cited as influencing the personal vote is the electoral system, with candidate-centred rules more likely to encourage the cultivation of a personal following. There has been some work on the strength of the personal vote in countries that use an electoral system with multi-member constituencies and intra-party choice, such as Finland, Japan and Switzerland (Karvonen, 2004; Swindle, 2002), and also in those with single-member constituencies, such as Canada, the United Kingdom and the United States (Cain, Ferejohn and Fiorina, 1987; Carey and Shugart, 1995). Of course, Ireland having one of the most candidate-centred of electoral systems has led many to assume that a consequence of its single transferable vote is a strong personal vote. The latter has been evident in opinion polls back to the 1960s, which have consistently shown that choosing a candidate to look after the local constituency is of particular importance to voters, with approximately 40 per cent stating it to be their main priority (Chubb, 1992: 144; Sinnott, 1995: 168–71; Marsh, 2010: 183–86). Most Irish political scientists would dispute, however, the extent to which the emphasis on candidates’ qualities may be a product of the electoral system. The adoption of STV in Scotland for local elections in 2007 facilitated Marsh and Curtice (2008: 294–95) examining this relationship further, where they found party to be more important than in Ireland. While 27 per cent of Scottish voters said they would still vote for their most preferred candidate if they switched parties, the equivalent Irish figure was 46 per cent, suggesting that the electoral system is not necessarily a decisive factor in a predilection for candidate.

The significant competitor with candidate for the heartstrings of the voter is party, with there being somewhat conflicting evidence concerning the primacy of each. Marsh’s (2010: 184) analysis of the INES between 2002 and 2007 found that approximately one third of the electorate was candidate-centred, one third party-centred, with another third influenced by a mix of both. Other studies based on mock-ballots have likewise demonstrated the importance of candidate (Bowler and Farrell, 1991a; Bowler and Farrell, 1991b). More recently, Marsh et al. (2008: 24) found that it is now only a minority of voters who vote for all of the candidates of their first preferred party in a sequence. As Marsh and Plescia (2016) have discussed, however, one problem concerns the extent to which opinion poll data suggest the primacy of candidate over party, while aggregate data suggest otherwise. This was evidenced by the general stability of party support, at least up until the 2011 general election, and also by the historically high levels of intra-party transfer rates, which until the 1980s were in excess of 80 per cent (Sinnott, 1995: 209–11), indicating a high degree of partisanship.

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