It's Not About the Shark by PhD David Niven

Author:PhD David Niven [David Niven, PhD]
Language: eng
Format: mobi
ISBN: 9781466839236
Publisher: St. Martin's Press
Published: 2015-11-24T00:05:05.170000+00:00

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TWO FOR THE ROAD: CLIMBING OUT OF THE OVERCONFIDENCE TRAP

Make predictions. Think about one of your friends. If forced to choose between The New Yorker and Vanity Fair, which magazine would your friend subscribe to? How confident are you? How much would you bet that you are right? When psychologists asked people a series of these kinds of prediction questions, then asked the friends what they would really do, the predictions turned out to be spectacularly wrong—with 97 percent of the participants having been wildly overconfident that they were right. If they had been making real bets, participants would have lost almost every time.2 Right now, make five predictions about something that could go either way. It could be anything. Which team is going to win the game tonight? Is it going to rain tomorrow? Anything. When you try to explain to yourself why one or two or all five of your predictions were wrong, remember there is no reason to pretend you are always right or that some outcomes aren’t arbitrary. Even those capable of making the best predictions in the world don’t know what will happen all the time—but they know better when they don’t know.

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