How to Pick a Winner by Mary Mountier

Author:Mary Mountier [Mary Mountier]
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 9781877551154
Publisher: Awa Press
Published: 2012-06-01T00:00:00+00:00

PARTLY KNOWLEDGEABLE

By this I mean you can understand some of the jargon and symbols in the race book, have been to the races or TAB before, know the rudiments of betting, and have vaguely heard of some of the horses and/or jockeys/drivers.

You are in the happy position of being able to impress those around you with your superior knowledge. Tell them absolutely anything and they’ll believe you. (‘Of course all jockeys’ whips are electrically charged.’) And you will be able to explain convincingly why the horse you backed in the last race didn’t win. Here are some suitable systems for you:

Fourths Back any horse that ran fourth at its last start. If there are more than one, back them all. Fourth is a very good place to run at your last start, unless there were only four runners. It generally means the horse can improve, especially if it hasn’t had many races lately.

Form This next one’s really good, but it involves a bit of working out, so it’s best to do it before leaving home, which means buying a newspaper or turf guide. What you do is add up the figures in front of each horse’s name. These tell you where they finished at their last few starts, known as their ‘form’. A zero means they came in tenth or worse (so that counts as 10, not 0). Then divide by the number of starts, and back whichever horse has the smallest total.

If they’ve all had four starts, the smallest possible total is one (four firsts, divided by four). Ignore the little x and the dot in the form line – they just mean a break from racing of over four weeks (dot) or over three months (x). If the numbers won’t divide evenly, just take a stab. After a while you’ll quickly pick out the ones that will have the lowest score, and won’t have to do the calculation for every single horse.

Winner two starts ago Back a horse that won at its second-to-last start, and then came fifth or worse at its last. Note that this is in complete contradiction to the above two systems. The reasoning is that if it was good enough to win a couple of starts back it will probably do so again, and the last start failure means it will pay more. Also, it may have met with bad luck last time, and not many horses are consistently unlucky.

Newspaper tips Follow the racing expert’s tips in the newspaper. If there are several experts, just choose one. Couple up all this person’s tips in boxed quinellas and trifectas. Being a partly knowledgeable person, you’ll know how to do this. Stick with their selections right to the end, and if you don’t win at all write a rude letter of complaint to the paper.

Appearance If you’re at the course, watch the horses as they walk around the birdcage. Back the one that has the shiniest coat and prances around, taking tiny little steps, as if it can’t wait to race.

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