Ground War by Nicholas Goedert

Author:Nicholas Goedert
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Published: 2022-01-15T00:00:00+00:00

Methodology for Historically Weighted Model for Bias and Responsiveness

The method developed in this chapter, HWEG, is designed to capitalize on the advantages of EG, including its correspondence to historical seats/votes patterns, its ease of calculation, and its robustness to application in noncompetitive states, while addressing its greatest failings, its unpredictability and sensitivity to idiosyncratic election results. Instead of measuring bias under a single observed election or under a predetermined range of hypothetical statewide vote, HWEG seeks to assess bias under a plausible range of electoral conditions, drawing this range from the distribution of historical results. Fundamentally, the HWEG measure asks: How much will the partisan delegation resulting from a map deviate from the results observed over a nationally average range of historical conditions? Along with a single HWEG bias measure, this method also generates an EG curve and range of responsiveness slopes for each map.

HWEG breaks down this process into four questions:

1. What is a historically average relationship of two-party seats to votes?

2. What is a historically average distribution of national partisan swings?

3. For each state, how does the partisan balance in this state in recent national elections deviate from the national average? (What is the state’s “normal vote”?)

4. For each district in each state, how does the partisan balance in the district and the variation in that balance in recent elections deviate from the statewide average?

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