Experimental Search for Quantum Gravity by Sabine Hossenfelder

Author:Sabine Hossenfelder
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Springer International Publishing, Cham

The Winning Probability of a Research Program

Humankind invests resources (money, working hours) in physics with the objective of “getting to know Nature better”: a research program is successful when the return on the investments takes the shape of the experimental discovery of previously unknown physical phenomena. Some ratio of the quantity and quality of these discoveries versus the amount invested must be the measure of success of a research program. While quantifying precisely is hard, evidently the research program on quantum mechanics of about a century ago is the most successful research program ever, while, for example, research programs on the magnetic monopole [1] are so far at a total loss.

Assessing a posteriori this return on investment is of course mere academia. We need good decisions on investments, not some historical accounts of good and bad investments. Here is where estimates of the “winning probability” of a research program play a role. We need estimates of the probability that a research program will provide a good return on investment. In an appropriate sense the winning probability is the product of two probabilities, and :

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