Backgammon for Serious Player by Robertie Bill

Author:Robertie, Bill [Robertie, Bill]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: ebook, book
Publisher: Cardoza Publishing
Published: 2013-01-28T06:00:00+00:00

Diagram 56: Black on roll

54. Black doubles to 4.

An interesting double by Magriel. He's certainly become a favorite in the game, but is it time to turn the cube? Let's take a look at how this position is likely to develop.

The most likely probability is that Magriel will complete his 6-point prime and eventually close out White's checker, but without hitting a second checker. In this case, with White's already having eight men off, Black will be a slight favorite, probably in the neighborhood of 60% to win (if White had borne off nine checkers before being hit, then he would still be the favorite -these are good facts to remember.)

If White exposes a second checker, and Black hits it, and Black then closes out both checkers, he will be a huge favorite - actually considerably more than 90% to win.

There are a few other odd variations. Black might never complete his prime, and White might enter and escape. That's obviously very bad for Black. Alternatively, Black might hit a second checker, but White might anchor both checkers on the 1-point. Black's about 75% to win if that happens.

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