High Percentage Fishing: A Statistical Approach To Improving Catch Rates by Josh Alwine

Author:Josh Alwine [Alwine, Josh]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Published: 2016-01-27T11:00:00+00:00

Weather

“Fishing is a discipline in the equality of men – for all men are equal before fish.”

– Herbert Hoover

Air Pressure

Barometric pressure is perhaps the most widely discussed weather related predictor of fishing success. In fact, one of the primary drivers for beginning my data analysis was to try to confirm the popular fishing adage that dropping barometric pressure positively influences the feeding behavior of bass. A widespread theory on this matter is that dropping air pressure causes a decrease in water pressure, which in turn causes underwater organisms to rise in the water column. Conversely, as pressure increases, organisms (especially plankton) are forced into vegetation and other areas where larger predators have a more difficult time reaching them.

For reference, at sea level mean barometric pressure pushes down with a force of approximately 14.7lbs per square inch. All organisms are accustomed this pressure so there is no perceived sensation of the force. Furthermore, a 1 millibar change in pressure equates to about .015lbs per square inch change in force. Generally, over the course of several hours pressure rarely shifts by more than a few millibars, so the actual change in force on any organism is minimal. Certainly not something that would be perceived by humans or noticeably impact the position of bass in the water column.

Before we dive into the data, there are a few important concepts related to atmospheric pressure we should cover. First of all, there is a common misconception that cold fronts are low pressure and warm fronts are high pressure. While it is true that cooling air drops its pressure and that heating it increases pressure there are a myriad of other factors that play into whether a particular mass of air is low or high pressure. Most notably among these aspects is that pressure regions are measured relative to other pressure regions around them.

There is no magic cut off on the barometric scale that makes a mass of air high or low pressure. It is for this reason that it is entirely possible for a warm mass of air to be low pressure in relation to a higher pressure cool mass of air and vice versa. If all this sounds confusing it is precisely one of the reasons why barometric pressure is a poor overall predictor of fishing success.

When reviewing the data, the basic statistical approach used was to stratify periods of time in 1, 3, 6, and 12 hour periods in which pressure went up or down. For instance, if pressure dropped over a 3 hour period it would be put into the decreasing pressure data bucket. Similarly, if pressure increased over a similar period it would go into the rising pressure category. Catch rates for each 1, 3, 6, and 12 hour period were then compared to the overall catch rate for the data set. Catch rates that were significantly higher or lower than the base catch rate would then indicate a variable of possible significance. What the findings indicate first and foremost is that a great many fish are caught across the full spectrum of barometric pressure.

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