The Nexus of Economics, Security, and International Relations in East Asia by Avery Goldstein & Edward Mansfield

Author:Avery Goldstein & Edward Mansfield [Goldstein, Avery & Mansfield, Edward]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: Political Science, General, Security (National & International)
ISBN: 9780804782739
Google: QIB2swEACAAJ
Goodreads: 14935884
Publisher: Stanford University Press
Published: 2012-08-29T11:38:51+00:00

6 The Cult of Energy Insecurity and Great Power Rivalry Across the Pacific

Danielle F. S. Cohen and Jonathan Kirshner

Most states that are dependent on imported energy fret about the domestic and international political consequences implied by that dependence—supply disruptions can wreak havoc with the economy, rattling support for the regime in power, and they can expose countries to national security threats by limiting their ability to fight wars or by leaving them vulnerable to extortion. States, perhaps not unrealistically, view energy as the lifeblood of their economies and, somewhat less rationally, worry about the precariousness of that flow the way one would worry about a jugular vein in a knife fight.

Great powers do more than fret. They seek, proactively and often aggressively, to do whatever it takes to ensure energy security. States have clashed over energy resources throughout modern history, and since the Second World War, the Persian Gulf region has attracted the attention of great powers as a consequence of the massive oil reserves to be found there (Yergin 1991; Barnhart 1987; Painter 1986). In contemporary politics, several factors have led some analysts to expect an increasingly dangerous clash over energy security among the United States, China, and Japan (Klare 2004: esp. 175–179; Kleveman 2003: 9, 98, 101, 192, 263). These concerns derive from claims, especially in popular accounts, that global petroleum production will soon reach peak levels, after which it will gradually diminish over time, while at the same time, global demand for oil is on the rise, with new actors in emerging economies (like India and China) elbowing their way for space at the table (Goodstein 2005; Roberts 2004; Deffeyes 2001). Also alarming was the doubling of oil prices from 2003 to 2006, and their doubling again from 2006 to 2008, a seemingly inexorable rise that finally crested and receded as a result of the global economic crisis. Finally, there is the distinct salience of energy security for three principal states hungry for the world’s oil: Japan, which depends on imports, by sea, for virtually all the 4.4 million barrels of oil it consumes each day; China, a late entrant to crowded world markets with soaring demand for imported oil; and the United States, the elephant at the watering hole. Even in 2009, after two years of dismal economic growth, the United States still consumed more oil than the total consumption of the next four biggest players, and it remained the world’s dominant oil importer, bringing in more foreign oil than China and Japan combined (Energy Information Administration 2009c, 2009d).

Nevertheless, we argue that energy insecurity is a myth; that is, concerns by states that they will not be able to ensure adequate energy supplies, thus presenting leaders with economic and political crises, are misguided. States need not be worried about this problem, with the exception of a few unlikely scenarios (about which more below), especially if short-term disruptions (easily managed by relatively modest contingency planning) are excluded from consideration. However, and this is a big however, although

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