The Madman Theory by Jim Sciutto

Author:Jim Sciutto
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: HarperCollins
Published: 2020-08-11T00:00:00+00:00

South Korea Steps In

No one was more concerned about a march toward war than South Korea. With its capital, the hub of its world-class economy, situated just thirty miles from the North Korean border, even a limited conflict carried the prospect of devastating human and economic losses. Thousands of US soldiers and private citizens were also at risk. An exchange limited to conventional weapons or conventional weapons coupled with chemical weapons (of which the North has vast stockpiles) carried a potential death toll in the tens of thousands.

“There is no question that the South Koreans very much have the goal of denuclearizing North Korea, but their higher priority is no war, you know?” said Ambassador Yun.

South Korean leaders now had a new variable to add to a deadly serious calculus: Donald Trump. His incendiary public threats of “fire and fury” and casual consideration of a “bloody-nose” military strike few believed to be realistic were too much for the South Korean government. “That’s really when the South Koreans stepped in,” Yun recalled.

In January 2018, Seoul sent a delegation to Washington to inform Trump that North Korea was ready to talk—and not just to restart limited nuclear negotiations but to discuss full denuclearization. “They said North Korea would agree to denuclearize and that they wanted to meet Trump,” Yun said. “And so Trump agreed.”26

What’s remarkable is that South Korea, the United States’ ally, and North Korea were coordinating Kim’s outreach to Trump, according to US officials involved. Their intention was drawing Trump to the negotiating table while exaggerating expectations of what North Korea was willing to give up.

“They were in cahoots,” one former Trump administration official told me. “I think Kim was leading Trump on, as, most likely, were the South Koreans.”

The immediate result was positive: the United States and North Korea retreated from the precipice of war. In the short term, that served everyone’s interests. However, in the medium and longer term, Pyongyang and Seoul created an illusion of denuclearization that was almost certainly not going to become a reality. To some degree, Trump was being played by both the ally and the adversary.

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