The American War in Afghanistan by Carter Malkasian

Author:Carter Malkasian
Language: eng
Format: epub, pdf
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Published: 2021-06-15T00:00:00+00:00

Map 16 Taliban territory, 2012

Through 2010 and early 2011, Obama and the White House staff carefully monitored the surge. The results confirmed his low expectations. He was unsure Taliban momentum had been reversed and the government looked unable to survive on its own. Unlike Iraq and its “awakening,” there had been no tipping point. Progress in Kandahar was at that point pending. Helmand was an expensive success. The number of attacks in Afghanistan in 2011 was slightly lower than 2010 or 2009 but still higher than 2006. The same was true for casualties; 418 Americans would be killed in 2011, compared to 499 in 2010 and 312 in 2009.10 In all, the United States suffered 1,230 killed and more than 12,500 wounded from 2009–2011, the majority of its casualties for the whole war to the end of 2019. The Afghan army and police were assessed as dependent on the United States and taking responsibility too slowly on their own.

US efforts to improve the government also disappointed. Obama had reminded Karzai in March 2010 during their first videoconference that “Good governance must be implemented and corruption must be fought” only to have Karzai brush fault back onto the United States and other donors for mismanaging their aid.11 Come early 2011, the few bright spots in the efforts to improve the Afghan government were the August 2010 parliamentary elections and an increased number of qualified governors, district governors, judges, and community councils. Corruption still prevailed. In September 2010, the Kabul Bank collapsed after nearly $1 billion in loans disappeared. The US Embassy discovered that Afghan elites, including Karzai’s brother Mahmoud and one of First Vice President Mohammed Fahim’s brothers, had been using the bank to take out loans, invest the money for personal gain, and never repay it. Obama spoke about the matter in May with Karzai, who claimed “US officials in Kabul” had prevented his government from intervening, implying the scandal was due to American ineptitude.12 The White House viewed Karzai as a damning obstacle: erratic and complicit.13

Besides the surge’s results, the big picture was very much on Obama’s mind. Domestic support for the surge was thin. In January 2009, a Gallup poll had found that 66 percent of Americans agreed with the decision to send military forces to Afghanistan. By March 2011, that number had dropped to 53 percent. In the middle of 2010, Democrats in Congress were already calling for steep reductions in US forces. For most Americans and their congressmen, Afghanistan was an unneeded expense during the slow recovery from the great recession. Tens of thousands of boots on the ground no longer seemed affordable. At the same time, the death of bin Laden removed the primary threat to the United States. According to a May 2011 Gallup poll taken days after bin Laden’s death, 59 percent of Americans believed that the US mission in Afghanistan had been accomplished.14 In late May, a motion in the House of Representatives by Speaker Nancy Pelosi to accelerate the withdrawal was narrowly defeated by 215 to 204 votes.

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