Practical Text Analytics: Interpreting Text and Unstructured Data for Business Intelligence (Marketing Science) by Steven Struhl

Author:Steven Struhl [Struhl, Steven]
Language: eng
Format: azw3, pdf
Publisher: Kogan Page
Published: 2015-07-02T16:00:00+00:00

Source: The storm tossed vessel, circa 1889, Henri, Rousseau.

http://www.wikiart.org/en/henri-rousseau/the-storm-tossed-vessel#supersized-artistPaintings-191415. Frame photographed by the author. Image assembled by the author.

The problem of using the wrong sample frame was not widely understood back in 1936. George Gallup (creator of the Gallup poll) did know about this, and conducted a more modest (but still large) survey with the right frame. He correctly forecast that in January of the next year, we would not be seeing President Alf Landon. (The winner was a slightly better known person, one Franklin Delano Roosevelt, who won by a margin of 62 per cent to 38 per cent.)

The main source of the problem, as we mentioned, was that the survey got answers from 2.4 million of the wrong people. It did not matter that this was a huge group, representing about 6 per cent of the entire voting population at the time. This sample was too affluent and too literate to reflect the US voting public at the time. Basing a prediction on them led to incredibly wrong results.

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