Power and Progress by Daron Acemoglu;Simon Johnson;

Author:Daron Acemoglu;Simon Johnson; [Acemoglu, Daron / Simon Johnson]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Hachette Book Group
Published: 2023-05-16T00:00:00+00:00

9

Artificial Struggle

Nothing has been written on this topic which can be considered as decisive—and accordingly we find everywhere men of mechanical genius, of great general acuteness and discriminative understanding, who make no scruple in pronouncing the Automaton a pure machine, unconnected with human agency in its movements, and consequently, beyond all comparison, the most astonishing of the inventions of mankind.

—Edgar Allan Poe, “Maelzel’s Chess Player,” 1836 (italics in original)

The world of the future will be an ever more demanding struggle against limitations of our intelligence, not a comfortable hammock in which we can lie down to be waited upon by our robot slaves.

—Norbert Wiener, God and Golem, Inc., 1964

In its special report on the future of work in April 2021, the Economist magazine took to task those worrying about inequality and dwindling job opportunities for workers: “Since the dawn of capitalism people have lamented the world of work, always believing that the past was better than the present and that the workers of the day were uniquely badly treated.”

Fears about AI-driven automation are particularly overblown, and “popular perceptions about the world of work are largely misleading.” The report proceeded to provide a clear restatement of the productivity bandwagon: “In fact, by lowering costs of production, automation can create more demand for goods and services, boosting jobs that are hard to automate. The economy may need fewer checkout attendants at supermarkets, but more massage therapists.”

The report’s overall assessment: “A bright future for the world of work.”

The management consulting company McKinsey expressed a similar conclusion in early 2022 as part of its strategic partnership with the annual World Economic Forum in Davos:

For many members of the world’s workforces, change can sometimes be seen as a threat, particularly when it comes to technology. This is often coupled with fears that automation will replace people. But a look beyond the headlines shows that the reverse is proving to be true, with Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) technologies driving productivity and growth across manufacturing and production at brownfield and greenfield sites. These technologies are creating more and different jobs that are transforming manufacturing and helping to build fulfilling, rewarding, and sustainable careers.

The Economist and McKinsey were articulating views of many tech entrepreneurs and experts that concerns about AI and automation are exaggerated. The Pew Research Center surveyed academics and technology leaders, and reported statements from more than a hundred of them, with the overwhelming majority stating that although there were downsides, AI would bring widespread economic and societal benefits.

According to the prevailing perspective, there may be some disruption along the way—for example, in terms of jobs lost—but such transition costs are unavoidable. In the words of one of the experts quoted by the Pew Research Center, “In the coming 12 years AI will enable all sorts of professions to do their work more efficiently, especially those involving ‘saving life’: individualized medicine, policing, even warfare (where attacks will focus on disabling infrastructure and less in killing enemy combatants and civilians).” The same person also conceded, “Of course, there will be some downsides: greater unemployment in certain ‘rote’ jobs (e.

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