Nuclear Deterrence in a Multipolar World: The U.S., Russia and Security Challenges by Stephen J. Cimbala

Author:Stephen J. Cimbala [Cimbala, Stephen J.]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: Comparative Politics, Peace, Political Science
ISBN: 9781317086505
Google: Kj4rDwAAQBAJ
Goodreads: 35633706
Publisher: Routledge
Published: 2017-07-05T00:00:00+00:00

(1) “Holding” Model

Chart 8.1 summarizes the prewar forces for each of the states in the “holding” or constrained model.

Chart 8.1

Total Strategic Weapons Holding Model

The numbers of surviving and retaliating warheads for each state in the “holding” model, following a nuclear first strike, are represented in Chart Two, below. Outcomes are displayed under each of four operational conditions: (1), forces are on generated alert and launched on warning; (2), forces are on generated alert and ride out the attack before retaliating; (3), forces are on day to day alert and launched on warning; and, (4), forces are on day to day alert and ride out the attack before retaliating.

In this model, with toplines of 1,000 deployed warheads each for the U.S. and Russia, 500 each for the UK, China and France, and 300 each for other states, all states maintain survivable and retaliating forces sufficient to inflict historically unprecedented and socially unacceptable damage. However, some variations in the nuclear flexibility of the survivors are important. In general, larger states with higher numbers of initially deployed warheads retain more surviving forces. But this is not always true, and the “more is better” finding depends upon other variables: including the kinds of forces deployed, and the operational assumptions and command-control protocols for managing forces. Sea based missiles are more survivable than land based missiles, but sea based forces require more sophisticated command-control and communications systems. Bombers are less survivable than submarines but more so than ICBMs (land based strategic missiles) deployed in fixed silos.

Download

Copyright Disclaimer:
This site does not store any files on its server. We only index and link to content provided by other sites. Please contact the content providers to delete copyright contents if any and email us, we'll remove relevant links or contents immediately.