No Place for Russia: European Security Institutions Since 1989 by William H. Hill

Author:William H. Hill [Hill, William H.]
Language: eng
Format: epub, pdf
Tags: General, Europe, Political Science, World, History, Security (National & International), Russian & Former Soviet Union
ISBN: 9780231801423
Google: PUtBDwAAQBAJ
Goodreads: 36906242
Publisher: Columbia University Press
Published: 2018-08-14T00:00:00+00:00

WAR IN GEORGIA

The term “frozen conflicts” applied to the long-standing disputes involving the separatist entities of South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Transdniestria, and Nagorno-Karabakh, in Georgia, Moldova, Armenia, and Azerbaijan was always a misnomer. The term “frozen” was used to reflect the fact that in each case the settlement process seemed stuck, incapable of reaching any agreement. In fact, there was never any guarantee that any one, or all, of them might not heat up unexpectedly. Sadly, that was what finally happened in South Ossetia in August 2008.

It is unclear what conclusions Saakashvili drew from the somber warning on the consequences of Kosovo’s independence delivered to him by Putin in February 2008. His subsequent reference to Bush’s “freedom agenda” in his meeting with the US president in Washington in March could have been a response to the Putin warning, but the move was also typical of tactics the impulsive Georgian had been using with Bush since 2005.100 However, several sources confirm that Bush warned Saakashvili multiple times not to provoke the Russian president and stated that the United States would not be able to come to Georgia’s rescue if Russia took action against it.101

Saakashvili was caught in a political spiral of his own making. Seeking to repair damage done to his and Georgia’s image by security forces’ harsh response to opposition demonstrations in November 2007, Saakashvili called for early presidential elections in January 2008.102 He won a bare majority in the first round, and promised repeatedly during the campaign to restore Georgia’s territorial integrity in a matter of weeks, or at most months. Following Kosovo’s declaration of independence, Moscow began to increase pressure on Tbilisi via South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The March hearings in Russia’s State Duma (which recommended recognition of the two entities) were followed by an “upgrading” of Moscow’s relations with the two “mini-states” in April. During that same month, in a chicken-and-egg sequence, Georgian and Russian forces were reinforced in the Kodori Gorge and Abkhazia against a backdrop of mutual recriminations between Moscow and Tbilisi. Russia dispatched an additional 500 troops to Abkhazia in May to repair the railroad there, and Secretary of State Rice expressed fear that hostilities could erupt in the region.103

Saakashvili apparently derived some hope of a settlement from his initial meeting with Medvedev in Saint Petersburg in June 2008, but he was soon disappointed as Moscow demanded of him a written non-use-of-force pledge. Rice weighed in with Saakashvili, urging him during a private dinner in Tbilisi on July 9 to reject the use of force, warning that it could only backfire on him. As far as Moscow could tell, the only thing Saakashvili heard from the Americans were Rice’s public remarks on July 10 in defense of Georgia’s territorial integrity and her conclusion that America would continue its support for Georgia.104

Despite all efforts, diplomacy failed. Russia assembled a large concentration of troops across the border from Georgia in the North Caucasus and began a massive training exercise in June and July. Despite Russian objections, the

Download

Copyright Disclaimer:
This site does not store any files on its server. We only index and link to content provided by other sites. Please contact the content providers to delete copyright contents if any and email us, we'll remove relevant links or contents immediately.