'Isms & 'Ologies by Arthur Goldwag

Author:Arthur Goldwag [Goldwag, Arthur]
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 978-0-8041-5263-1
Publisher: Knopf Doubleday Publishing Group
Published: 2014-02-04T16:00:00+00:00

OCCAM’S RAZOR

Also known as the principle of parsimony. Named after the English Scholastic William of Occam, also known as William of Ockham (1285–ca. 1349), who wrote, “Pluralitas non est ponenda sine neccesitate,” or “Plurality should not be assumed unnecessarily.” In other words, if you’re trying to explain something, don’t make your explanations more complicated than they have to be; similarly, if you must choose between alternative hypotheses, start out with the one that requires the fewest assumptions—if for no other reason than it will be the easiest to test.

Skeptics frequently use Occam’s razor to slice paranormal claims down to size. For instance, when we see a photograph of a flying saucer on the cover of a supermarket tabloid, two possible explanations leap to mind: (1) It really is a picture of a space ship, or (2) The photograph is a fake. Both hypotheses offer possible explanations, but the first requires a plurality of supporting assumptions. We need to posit a point of origin for the space ship, a civilization to build it, a technology to power it, etc. For the second explanation, we need only assume the mendaciousness of the magazine’s editors.

Occam’s razor isn’t a law—it’s a heuristic tool, or as Carl Sagan put it, “a convenient rule of thumb.” As the development of quantum physics in the twentieth century has amply demonstrated, the correct explanation for a phenomenon doesn’t always turn out to be the most intuitive or the easiest to understand; sometimes the seemingly least likely explanation turns out to be true. If hostile aliens ever do train their laser beams on our cities, Occam’s razor won’t protect us from them.

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