Economic and Political Weekly [Mon, 22 Jun 2020] by calibre

Author:calibre [calibre]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: News, Economic and Political Weekly
Publisher: calibre
Published: 2020-06-22T03:59:34+00:00

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This article was downloaded by calibre from http://www.epw.in/journal/2020/25/law-and-society/lawless-lawmaking-covid-19-world.html

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Exiting the Lockdown Sustainably

Avinash D Persaud ([email protected]) is Special Envoy to the Prime Minister of Barbados, who has been chairman of the regional grouping of Caribbean nations, CARICOM, during the crisis.

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Exiting the lockdown before a vaccine is available or herd immunity is in effect is a problem, especially because it appears that up to 50% of people with COVID-19 could be asymptomatic—they could have and carry the disease without symptoms. In the British Medical Journal’s review of data on infections in Wuhan, China and other studies of the data from Italy, 78% of carriers were asymptomatic. The only way of identifying asymptomatic carriers would be through widespread testing or contact tracing. Exiting the lockdown in the presence of asymptomatic people before a vaccine or herd immunity will send us back into lockdown, again and again.

Not exiting the lockdown is a problem too. No amount of drama in the economic statistics—a doubling of unemployment in a few weeks, 100% declines in government revenues or revenues in travel-related sectors, a contraction of the global economy—describes the stark reality that a vast majority of the population in developing countries do not have the savings to survive without income for even short periods. Not all countries are like Norway. While the bloody protests in the United States reflect deep iniquities, it would be hard to conjure up circumstances more likely to tear apart the social fabric of our societies than to make a large part of the population unemployed and hungry and take away their everyday freedoms.

There is an essential psychological and time dimension too. The Brits may invoke the spirit of “Dunkirk” at the beginning of the first lockdown, but not after repeated, prolonged lockdowns and depressing uncertainty as to when or if this will change. Dunkirk occurred right at the beginning of the war, not amid its destruction. No wonder, then, that the prospect of opening up is being greeted with relief and not much analysis.

There is a clue as to what we need to do to live with COVID-19, before a vaccine is made available. Many of those most vulnerable to falling off the social, economic, and psychological edge because they are now incapable of providing for themselves and their loved ones are often those least likely to have complications from catching COVID-19—the young and healthy. Many of those we need to protect, the elderly and sick, are often those least affected by a lockdown because they were not working full time. Some are still receiving their pension cheques. Further, forcing families to remain in small spaces, near the old or with those who need psychological outlets, may create new risks. Lockdown is a blunt instrument.

To lockdown or “open up the economy” is a false dichotomy. More useful distinctions are between (i) people who are predominantly safe and those who are at risk, and (ii) activities that are predominantly safe and those that are risky.

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