Economic and Political Change in the Middle East (RLE Economy of Middle East) by Elias H. Tuma

Author:Elias H. Tuma [Tuma, Elias H.]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: Social Science, Regional Studies
ISBN: 9781317594666
Google: WBUhBQAAQBAJ
Publisher: Routledge
Published: 2014-10-30T05:01:45+00:00

PROSPECTS FOR AGRICULTURAL GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT

Five years ago the Middle East countries were engaged in developing a feasible agricultural scenario for the years 1980–2000 under the auspices of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.36 That scenario envisaged an increase in the rate of growth of at least 50% over the rate experienced during the previous decade and a half. The assumption was that with greater efforts by the Middle East countries, the proposed scenario could be realized. Among its goals, in addition to higher growth rates, was a higher degree of food self-sufficiency or food supply safety, even though the emphasis on food production may be economically questionable. Of course, it is too early to assess the possibility of fulfilling that scenario. The review and analysis of agriculture in the region indicate that major efforts have been expended to increase output, combat population growth, and raise per capita output. An overall index of achievements in agriculture between 1960 and 1981 is shown in Table 6.7 . The overall achievement is relative to the point of departure each country started from. Therefore, a high rank simply means a high achievement in the last two decades, even though the level achieved may still be far below those that were ahead previously. Libya, for example, is second in overall achievement, but the productivity of its labor and the yield of its land and animals are far below those of Egypt, whose recent achievements have been less impressive. Therefore, these indices should be viewed with special care.

In general, however, the rates of growth in per capita output were rather modest in most cases, and declines were as frequent as increases. The two other indicators of development—labor productivity and yield per unit of land or of animal—tell a similar story. Improvement has been limited and the technologically retarded countries have made relatively little headway in raising either. Nevertheless, agriculture must have made a contribution by absorbing labor, though at a relatively low level of productivity, thus relieving the pressure on other sectors or simply doing what is traditional. Even in countries with abundant supplies of capital, the impact on productivity and yield has been very low, as in the oil-exporting countries. On the other hand, the countries with limited sources of capital seem to be equally handicapped, not only by the scarcity of capital but by other factors they share with the capital-rich countries, such as sociopolitical and infrastructural obstacles. The relationship between achievement in agriculture and the development context is strongly indicated in the rank correlations between them. Agricultural achievement seems highly correlated with each of the components: .78 with the sociopolitical context, .90 with demographic improvements, and .89 with the infrastructure and the educational profile. All these coefficients are significant at the 1% level. While these computations are somewhat shaky because of the quality of the data, the strength and consistency of these relations must not be taken lightly. With these precautions in mind, the following general observations may be suggested:

1.

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