Driving the Future by Margo T Oge

Driving the Future by Margo T Oge

Author:Margo T Oge
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Arcade Publishing
Published: 2014-12-31T16:00:00+00:00


PART THREE

IMAGINING TOMORROW

14

THE “FOUR WHEELS” DRIVING THE CAR OF THE FUTURE

In December of 2009, just seven months after President Obama had announced the first US action to regulate greenhouse gas emissions, representatives from 119 countries met behind the rounded glass façade of Copenhagen’s Bella Center. The event, a United Nations climate conference, brought together leaders of nations that account for at least 80 percent of the world’s greenhouse gases, including Obama. By his presence, the president said he was signaling that the United States would now be taking a leading role in global climate discussions: “The time has come for us to get off the sidelines and shape the future that we seek; that is why I came to Copenhagen.” Because his words came close on the heels of our breakthrough rules on cars and trucks, I hoped the United States might be on a roll.

Unfortunately, the meeting was not entirely successful. Spats between developing and developed nations erupted, including a blame game between China and the United States. The agreement that emerged, known as the Copenhagen Accord, was not legally binding for any of the participants. Both shortcomings were reminders of the myriad difficulties in unifying nations to combat climate change.

The meeting also at least hinted where the United States—and the rest of the world—needs to set its greenhouse gas reduction goals going forward. The nations at the Copenhagen Summit issued a “recognition” that scientists have determined the world needs to limit future temperature rises to below two degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels. Failure to do so would have devastating effects on the earth’s ecosystems, public health, and the global economy. Using just one metric, a July 2014 White House report assessed that “a delay that results in warming of 3° Celsius [5.4 Fahrenheit] above preindustrial levels, instead of 2° [3.6 Fahrenheit], could increase economic damages by approximately 0.9 percent of global output.”1 Today, that would represent a $150 billion hit to the United States. Globally, the annual damage would be worth more than the combined total assets of ExxonMobil, GM, Chrysler, and Coca-Cola. And every decade of inaction would increase the cost by roughly 40 percent.

But when the countries were asked to set voluntary greenhouse gas reduction goals for 2020, the gap between scientific necessity and global action was huge. The United States, for example, committed to a 17 percent reduction from 2005 levels. China promised a 40–45 percent drop. But as the IPCC has repeatedly concluded, to keep future temperature rises below two degrees Celsius and prevent catastrophic climate change, globally we must reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50 percent by 2030 and 80 percent by 2050, both below 2005 levels. A willingness to commit to double-digit reductions was positive, but none of the countries’ targeted goals went beyond 2020.

Achieving these kinds of reductions by mid-century is quite simply, a Herculean task. It took decades of work for the EPA to finally lock in the first national greenhouse regulations on passenger vehicles, but even that breakthrough comes up well short of the trajectory required for an 80 percent reduction by 2050.



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