The Rohingyas by Ibrahim Azeem; Yunus Muhammad;

Author:Ibrahim, Azeem; Yunus, Muhammad;
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: C. Hurst and Company (Publishers) Limited
Published: 2018-08-15T00:00:00+00:00

Potential triggers

The situation could escalate for any number of reasons, some even apparently unrelated. One could be an unexpected natural disaster, leaving the regime under pressure and desperate to find a scapegoat. Equally, there will be repeats of the 2015 exodus by sea of both willing refugees and those forced to flee. It is not impossible that neighbouring states could close their borders,5 partly in an attempt to force Myanmar to face up to its responsibilities towards its own population. The situation for the Rohingyas is now so bad that anything from natural disaster to loss of food supplies to the regime lashing out at external pressure could set off a genocide.

What is clear is that the return of limited democracy since 2010 has done nothing to reduce the risks. This section starts with the dynamics around the 2015 election. In part, this allows us to explore just how marginal the position of the Rohingyas now is and thus the extent to which almost any political, environmental or economic shock could act as the trigger for genocide.

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