The Formulation of Local Housing Strategies: A Critical Evaluation by Chris Nicol

Author:Chris Nicol [Nicol, Chris]
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 9781138263871
Google: iCxzswEACAAJ
Goodreads: 42988849
Publisher: Routledge
Published: 2002-04-01T00:00:00+00:00

technical requirements. This is prior to occupation, but is seen by the NHBC as generally signifying that the house is ready to be occupied (NHBC, 1993). The DoE/DETR regard a house as having been completed when it becomes ready for occupation, whether it is in fact occupied or not (DoE, 1993a). There is, therefore, a wider difference in the definition of a start than a completion, yet it is in the compilations of completions that significant problems arise (Gillen, 1994b).

With a few exceptions (Ball, 1983; Gillen, 1994b; Gillen et al., 1995) little academic work has examined the problems and incompatibilities with these data sets. Even the work that has examined this area has tended to avoid recommending one data series. In terms of housing strategies it would appear that local authorities would be best placed to employ the DETR building control based data. Building control data is collated ‘in house’ by the local authority themselves and it includes building inspections that have been carried out by the NHBCs building inspectors. It would appear that the data can, therefore, be tailored to the exact requirements of the individuals analysing the data, for instance the building control officers could be requested to record starts in terms of housing types or market areas.

The primary limitation with this data is the fact that in its published form (in the Housing and Construction Statistics) there can be a time lag. This is due to some authorities submitting the figures on time whilst others delay. The DETR require virtually complete responses from each authority before it can compile and prepare the statistics to be published. Yet this would not be a problem at the local level. If the data were to be employed by the local authority, before it was sent to the DoE for collation, the onus would be on the local authority officers to produce monthly/quarterly data on time.

According to Ball (1983), the cost to the housebuilder of holding completed dwellings is prohibitive, with the result that housebuilding companies build for a quick sale. This should ensure that housing output closely follows the level of demand. As a result, starts and completions, if taken as a representation of housebuilder activity, may be used as an overall indication of market demand e.g. the higher the level of starts the greater the level of housebuilder confidence in a buoyant housing market. Yet there are other factors which can affect the statistics, for example, the weather, or delays in the production of materials. This could present a fall in the starts or completions data which would be the result of factors outside the realm of the housing market and housing demand.

There is an argument, however, that starts and completions could be indicators of past demand being met, and may only indicate future markets if past trends continue. This may be the case with regard to completions as the construction process results in present completions being a reflection of decisions and opinions on the market which were taken,

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