The Fat Tail:The Power of Political Knowledge in an Uncertain World (with a New Preface) by Ian Bremmer & Preston Keat

Author:Ian Bremmer & Preston Keat [Bremmer, Ian]
Language: eng
Format: mobi
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Published: 2010-05-13T05:00:00+00:00

We can also identify types of terrorist groups by their actions and analyze them by their tactics. The Red Brigades tended to engage in assassinations and kidnappings of individuals, while avoiding mass bombings. Other groups, such as far-right terrorist organizations operating in Italy in the 1970s and 1980s or today’s Al Qaeda, prefer attacks that generate mass casualties. The style of violence varies widely, but it is usually determined following rational calculations of how best to achieve a set of clearly defined goals.20

Another technique that has become more prevalent is the suicide attack. Suicide attacks are a time-honored tradition; they were employed by the Assassins in the 12th century and more recently by Japanese kamikazes during World War II.21 The technique has been used increasingly by Islamic fundamentalist terrorists, although it has also been used by secular groups, such as the Kurdish PKK in Turkey and the Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka.

One problematic assumption is that suicide bombing must be considered irrational because it depends on the willingness of fanatical adherents to kill themselves. Many analysts argue this is not necessarily the case.22 In Southern Lebanon and in the Occupied Territories, for instance, suicide attacks are often carried out by poor young men without promising social prospects; in exchange for their “martyrdom operations,” organizations such as Hamas and Hizbullah provide for their bereaved families, whose social standing is considerably improved. These benefits are important incentives in a society where family and honor are valued as highly as individual life.

Further, it’s dangerous to presume that the leaderships of the organizations that carry out suicide attacks are clearly rational. They use suicide bombers because they believe this tactic has a significant psychological impact on the targeted states. Suicide terrorism has been on the rise in recent years because terrorists have realized that it is effective, particularly against democratic states. The threats posed by determined, intractable, and apparently irrational attackers force those who must defend democratic societies to acknowledge that suicide bombers can make for highly efficient terrorists.

Terrorism is also employed to polarize different social groups. In deeply divided societies, radical groups attempt to marginalize moderates. Sunni radicals in Pakistan launch attacks on Shiites in an attempt to promote Sunni radicalization by provoking Shiite attacks (another goal is to weaken the Pakistani government and break its morale). Some Sunni groups in Iraq have a similar agenda. The logic is that instability provoked by violence will draw people into their own identity groups and end dialogue by producing a rally-round-the flag effect. Polarization, though, can backfire on the people using it, and it sometimes makes terrorists unpopular with those they are trying to sway. Al Qaeda’s atrocities in Iraq have undermined the organization’s reputation with Sunni Iraqis, Al Qaeda’s natural “constituency.” The Red Brigades’ assassination campaigns eventually drew condemnation from the majority of the Italian left wing, including many of its radical elements.

Media access is another important factor in the choice of tactics. The Red Brigades were successful for many years in part because they knew how to use the Italian media to promote their goals—often by intimidating journalists.

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