Predicting Malicious Behavior by Gary M. Jackson

Author:Gary M. Jackson
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Wiley
Published: 2012-05-23T04:00:00+00:00

There are many other features of signature detection that result in only partial effectiveness at best. It is effective for what it does, but it is not effective enough. If we add the indisputable fact that signature detection is the primary method in use today, it is clear why we have a problem, and why we desperately need a paradigm shift resulting in new technology.

Turning to adversary warfare that is not network based, terrorists are intelligent and have received training on how to avoid detection. This is not a secret—it should be obvious. Of course, much depends on the organization. Hezbollah does repeat many of the same acts, either as terrorist attacks or as acts of insurgency. But, as we have observed, al-Qaeda switches behavior often. We have observed attacks against embassies, the naval ship USS Cole, the World Trade Center, and the Pentagon. There is no real signature to speak of with this group. Therefore, looking for attack signatures with al-Qaeda is fruitless. However, the group does respond to the same antecedent conditions and that has remained the same since its introduction, and predicting responses to antecedent conditions is the basis for AuBA.

Interestingly enough, the predictive accuracy of human behavior is not based on studying the behavior! Many make this mistake. Correlational approaches that associate different behaviors to find patterns are simply missing the fact that behaviors are associated with precursor antecedent and consequence conditions and situations. As someone once said, “Computers don't attack computers, people do.” If we look at people, we must look for antecedents, behavior, motivations, and consequences. Studying behavior alone and correlating behaviors may lead to baselines (normal rates of behaving) but not accurate prediction.

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