If Russia Wins: A Scenario by Carlo Masala

Author:Carlo Masala [Masala, Carlo]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Atlantic Books
Published: 2025-08-28T00:00:00+00:00

NATO Headquarters, Brussels

27 March 2028, 12:00 UTC

At NATO headquarters – a light-filled glass building with a design reminiscent of interlocking fingers forming a unified whole – the thirty-two permanent representatives of the NATO member states convene for an emergency meeting called by the secretary general. The meeting is held in Room 1, directly to the left of the airy main entrance. The members of the NATO Military Committee and the two strategic commanders of NATO, the Supreme Allied Commander Europe and the Supreme Allied Commander Transformation, based in Norfolk, in the US, have also been invited to attend the meeting. The only item on the agenda is the Russian aggression against Estonia.

The secretary general begins the meeting by presenting the facts, and concludes with the Estonian prime minister’s request, already known to those present, to convene a formal North Atlantic Council meeting at the level of heads of state and government, with the intention of invoking Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty.

‘I have asked you to come here today,’ the secretary general explains, ‘to get an overview of your governments’ stances. I am well aware that not all, or perhaps none, of the member states of our alliance will have a definitive opinion on Estonia’s request. All the same, we shouldn’t squander this opportunity to exchange perspectives. I have also invited to this meeting the representatives of the Military Committee, including the commanders of the two strategic NATO commands, to provide military advice where needed.’

The secretary general looks around expectantly at the ambassadors.

The Polish representative is the first to speak. ‘Ladies and gentlemen, on behalf of my government, I can tell you that Poland is of the view that this Russian aggression against a NATO member state must be met with a decisive response. We cannot and must not accept a violation of the territorial integrity of the alliance, even if it is only a small piece of land. We are familiar with Russian imperialism and know its goals. It will not stop at this provocation. If we do not now resolutely defend every square metre of our allied territory, to quote the former German chancellor Olaf Scholz’ – her lips turn up in a slightly ironic smile – ‘it will be the end of the NATO alliance. If we cannot rely on Article 5 in an emergency, what is the point of the treaty?’

The Italian ambassador is next to address the group. ‘Don’t shoot the messenger,’ he begins, ‘but we do not yet have enough information to make a final assessment of the situation. Yes, we have the attacks in Germany and the United Kingdom, and we have the limited aggression against Estonia. But what is also true’ – here he looks directly at the Estonian ambassador – ‘is that the Estonian government has not been particularly prudent in the past with regard to protecting the minority rights of Russians living within its territory.’

‘Mr Chairman,’ the Estonian representative interjects. ‘I would like to make a firm rebuttal of this assertion.

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