Atlas of the 2008 Elections by unknow

Author:unknow
Language: eng
Format: epub, pdf
ISBN: 978-0-7425-6796-2
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers

PENNSYLVANIA

WILLIAM BERENTSEN

As evidenced by maps in this atlas, the geographical patterns of Pennsylvania’s presidential elections are more diverse than in other northeastern states. This pattern reflects, among other things, diversity in the state’s ethnic and religious patterns as well as contrasts between its many highly urbanized and rural regions. In recent decades both the Democratic and Republican parties have also had successes in winning presidential, congressional, and statehouse elections. And Pennsylvania’s large number of electoral votes (twenty-one in recent elections), eclipsed by only four other U.S. states, underscores its importance as a possible swing state in any presidential or congressional election.

While Pennsylvania’s electoral votes have been won by Democratic presidential candidates in each election since 1992, between 1932 and 1992 the Republicans and Democrats each won the state’s electoral votes eight times, frequently trading back and forth brief eras of dominance after every third or fourth election. Obama’s eleven percentage point win in 2008 was the largest by any presidential candidate dating back to the 1972 election; in 2000 and 2004 there were quite narrow (2.5 and 4.2 percent) wins by the Democratic presidential candidates. The state’s congressional delegation has been split fairly evenly between the major parties for decades. It has a relatively even split among voters who view themselves as conservative, moderate, and liberal (see table 5.1 in the overview of voting patterns in the Northeast). In the past two presidential elections covered in this atlas there are stable geographical areas in Pennsylvania that voted both strongly Democratic and Republican, the former largely in the eastern part of the state and in urban areas, and the latter in the more rural central and western regions. In short, both major national political parties have won and can win in Pennsylvania.

On the one hand, it can be argued that Pennsylvania is now leaning more toward the Democrats. The recent switch to the Democratic Party by Senator Arlen Specter has given both Senate seats to the Democrats, but this is only the second time in the past 140 years that the state was represented in the Senate by only one party. Combined with Obama’s relatively wide margin of victory and a string of presidential election wins by the Democrats since 1992, there is some evidence of an established trend favoring the Democratic Party in Pennsylvania. On the other hand, these results may simply reflect election outcomes within a quite “middle of the road” Pennsylvania electorate that is not embracing the rise of Republican social conservatism, arguably a new type of electoral pattern across the U.S. Northeast in recent presidential and congressional elections. One could easily argue that a politically moderate Republican presidential candidate would have a good opportunity to win Pennsylvania in 2012, and Republican congressional candidates will most likely continue to compete well within the state in both the 2010 and 2012 elections. In the Northeast, perhaps the smaller New Hampshire (four electoral votes) and New Jersey (fifteen votes) are the only other places that could emerge as swing states in elections in the next few years.

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