Wither Iran? by Shahram Chubin

Author:Shahram Chubin [Chubin, Shahram]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: History, Military, General, Strategy, Political Science, International Relations, Arms Control, Political Freedom
ISBN: 9781136049040
Google: yxKgBAAAQBAJ
Publisher: Routledge
Published: 2014-09-25T01:24:33+00:00

Politics and the Nuclear Weapons ‘Debate’ in Iran

In the argument that Iran is implacably opposed to WMD, public opinion is invoked by Iranians, sometimes as a constraint and at other times as a source of pressure likely to question why, given its hostile neighbourhood, Iran denies itself certain arms. But does public opinion as such exist? The politicisation of the populace and the Khatami phenomenon, together, do suggest much more than a compliant or inert mass. However priorities are domestic, focused on the bread-and-butter issues of the day. Where WMD are concerned, public debate seldom gets beyond the broadest generalities, and even expert discussion is seldom sophisticated – and this is especially true of nuclear weapons. So can we talk of a ‘debate about nuclear weapons’? Perhaps an indirect, elite debate, which both reflects and forges a national consensus, is more accurate.

Regime politics in every domain involve creating consensus; coalitions vary according to the issues, and these cross-cutting alignments make analysing Iranian politics (and even the reform movement) an intricate and arcane exercise. Furthermore, in practice power tends to be informal as well as formal. Decisions reached can thus be the product of complex tradeoffs and agreements among groups, rather than the outcome of simple, linear, rational processes. None of this suggests that specific defence decisions are made openly.16 When Iran experienced difficulties with Russia over the agreement to refurbish the Bushire reactor, a newspaper, Salaam, ridiculed the project as a joke, and urged the authorities to break their silence and inform the public of the obstacles involved in the project.17

Certainly the opportunity costs of defence expenditures (and especially the nuclear component) have risen with the urgency of the need for domestic investment. At the same time, Khatami reflects a more consultative and accountable form of government based on transparency. These factors in combination have increased the inclination (notably by the reformist press) to demand a more open system of decision-making.

Some Iranian officials have argued that not only is forging a consensus for national security ‘complicated and time-consuming’ – involving the SNSC, Majlis, leadership, and academic and governmental experts – but that, once reached, the consensus is subject to the ‘careful scrutiny of an ever demanding civil society, the press, political tendencies and groupings, universities, a growing number of NGOs and the general public’. To build a consensus, the authors argue, clear arguments have to be presented, and this in turn necessitates transparency and ‘tolerance for a diversity of views’. The implication is that the hard-line view, sometimes selectively quoted by Western analysts, does not tell the whole story and represents just one of a variety of inputs into the decision-making process. For these authors, President Khatami’s general platform of seeking détente and normalisation in foreign policy for security, and security for development, has been enthusiastically endorsed by the electorate and so is ‘another determinant of Iran’s national security formation’.18

An incident with Rahim-Safavi in 1998 is indicative. Shortly after a conciliatory CNN interview by Khatami the Guards Commander’s remarks to a closed meeting of his officers were leaked by the press.

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