What Did the Romans Know? An Inquiry into Science and Worldmaking by Lehoux Daryn

Author:Lehoux, Daryn
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 9780226471150
Publisher: The university of chicago press

Predictability and Determinism

Of all the predictive sciences in antiquity, astrology is especially prone to questions of determinism. This is because astrological signs are importantly different from other kinds of omina. Omens from the flights of birds, or from marks in a sacrificial liver, happen in such a way that the diviner never really knows what signs to expect or even in many cases when they might appear. Astrologers on the other hand are faced with the unique situation that all of the signs from which they make their predictions are themselves predictable and regular. The astrologer knows in advance what the positions of the stars are going to be for any given day, and can deduce from that data what the earthly outcomes are going to be. On the face of it, the future may just all be fallout from the original constitution of the cosmos, and the astrologer can effectively look at any point in time from any point in time as though it were written out in front of him.

Accordingly, many classical sources straightforwardly equated belief in astrology with belief in determinism. As Tacitus said: “Most men do not doubt that what will happen to them is predestined from birth,” and the blame for any incorrect predictions can be laid squarely on the shoulders of the inept practitioner.30 One of the most interesting and colorful arguments for this determinism comes in Firmicus Maternus’ triumphalist description of the death of the Neoplatonic philosopher Plotinus, where Plotinus is forced to revise his rejection of fate when the goddess Fortune, personified and brutally vindictive, teaches him a hard lesson:

ecce in quadam parte orationis suae, sicut mihi videtur improvidus et incautus, vim fatalis necessitatis adgreditur et homines Fortunae decreta metuentes severa orationis obiurgatione castigat, nihil potestati stellarum tribuens, nihil fatorum necessitatibus reservans, sed totum dicens in nostra esse positum potestate. . . .

ecce se illi in ista confidentiae animositate securo tota fatorum potestas imposuit et primum membra eius frigido sanguinis torpore riguerunt et oculorum acies splendorem paulatim extenuati luminis perdidit, postea per totam eius cutem malignis humoribus nutrita pestis erupit, ut putre corpus deficientibus membris corrupti sanguinis morte tabesceret; per omnes dies ac per omnes horas serpente morbo minutae partes viscerum defluebant, et quicquid paulo ante integrum videras, statim confecti corporis exulceratio deformabat. sic corrupta ac dissipata facie, tota ab illo figura corporis recedebat et in mortuo, ut ita dicam, corpore solus superstes retinebatur animus, ut ista gravis morbi continuatione confectus et tormentis propriis coactus ac verae rationis auctoritate convictus vim fati potestatemque sentiret et ut confecti corporis laceratione quassatus sententiam Fortunae pronuntiantis exciperet.31

Look how in one part of his work [Plotinus] attacks the power of the necessity of fate (quite foolishly and carelessly it seems to me) and he forcefully rebukes people who fear the decrees of Fortune. He grants no power to the stars, and he offers no necessity to fate, but says that everything is within our power. . . .

And look how, when he was secure in this

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