The Logic Of Failure: Recognizing And Avoiding Error In Complex Situations by Dietrich Dorner

Author:Dietrich Dorner
Language: eng
Format: mobi
Published: 0101-01-01T00:00:00+00:00

Fig. 17. Questions and decisions of good (+-+-+) and bad (♦-♦-v) participants in von der Weth's experiment

Fig. 18. Areas of focus for good (+-+-+) and bad (V-v-v) participants over time

The relationship between success, level of information gathering, and readiness to act can also he the opposite of that in the lithum experiment, however. Figure 19 shows the number of decisions and the number of questions over eight phases of the Greenvale experiment. In this case, the good participants made more decisions and asked fewer questions than the had ones. That is, they behaved like the had participants in the lithum experiment.

Why? In my view, the difference lies in the time constraint, which was much more pressing in the lithum experiment. In both experiments, the good participants gathered enough information to let them make necessary decisions. The had participants reacted to the time pressure of the lithum experiment by refusing to gather information and by leaping into action. In the Greenvale experiment, however, bad participants responded to the absence of time pressure by gathering too much information. The excess information bred uncertainty, the uncertainty moved them to gather still more information, and that information inhibited their decision making all the more. The fact that the number of decisions the bad participants made after the fourth session sank rather than rose speaks for this interpretation.

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